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Ahhh ... a 5K, I'm in. I find the 16 milers... well, a little looooong for my taste. Though I'm curious -- what are you thinking of as a moderate pace? What's an average (not a winning, but middle of the pack) pace for a 16 mile trail run? Maybe that'll help me imagine how I could (or could not) work up to one.
That's a great question. It all depends on the course; a race that's all uphill will be slower than one that's on flat ground, to use extreme examples. The best way to get an idea is to run the course yourself. The next best way is to look at the results from last year's race, which are usually available online (GT race results are on WMAC web site www.runwmac.com)<br>
The winning time for NN last year was 2;01, with 96 runners. The last finisher took over five hours. I know from experience that I would likely be somewhere around the 70th percentile, so that's where I'd look, and find a finish time in the neighborhood of three hours. Then, I think to myself 'I can do better than that,' and I try.
And another thing, it's cool just to run and finish a longer race... just gradually increase your mileage and go for it!
Okay, great answer, thanks! Sounds like the winner's clipping right along... but if it's cool to run just to finish, maybe I'll take a stab at it!